CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-03-17T03:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-03-17T03:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29628/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is a filament eruption spanning S45E05 to S15W40 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304 imagery starting around 2024-03-17T02:30Z. Dimming is visible from the eruption site shortly after the filament lifts-off, starting around 02:37Z, seen in SDO AIA 193 and field line movement can be seen near the S/SW limb at this time in SDO AIA 171. Post-eruptive loops begin to form around 04:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery. This event partially overlaps CME: 2024-03-17T03:36Z, which also likely occurs from the same filament eruption. Arrival signature is likely of a combined arrival of these two CMEs. It is characterized by an increase in magnetic field to 14nT in what is likely the CME sheath, followed after 2024-03-21T10:49Z by smooth rotation of magnetic field components in what is likely the flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-21T01:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-21T11:38Z (-21.0h, +21.0h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:
CME input parameters: Apex direction (deg): E20.5 Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35 initial CME speed: 413.5 (+/- 50) km/s initial height: 21.5 R_sun initial time: 2024-03-17T12:08Z drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s time step: 10 min ensemble members: 50kLead Time: 64.42 hour(s)
Difference: -9.80 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Eva Weiler (ASWO) on 2024-03-18T09:25Z
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